Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels: The Map From $38k to $87k

The letter reads Bitcoin price as a confirmation road: a ladder of support and resistance levels, each with a rule for what confirms it and what invalidates it. The core discipline is that a wick is not a daily close. A level only counts as broken when price closes through it and fails to reclaim it.

As of Issue 28 (30 September 2026), the ladder runs from the $87.4k sweep that was rejected and $85k to $86k overhead, down through $82k, $80k, $77k and $72k near the 50-day average, to the $60k power-law area and the 2026 low near $57,700. The $60k area matters because it is where many desks are waiting: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer treats a hold there as consistent with a new cyclical bull market, and a sustained break above roughly $80.5k as confirmation of a double bottom. Below the 2026 low, $50k and $46k are observation points and $38k is kept only as a severe-tail reference.

The rule for reading the ladder is sequence, with one caveat Issue 28 adds: these levels are gates, not scheduled stops. October 2025 showed that forced selling can cross several of them before a daily candle closes, so a fast break may not pause at each door. A bearish path still has to show failures with rising intensity, and a bullish path has to hold daily closes while leverage resets and spot demand returns. Skipping straight from $77k to $28k in the headlines is exactly what the letter tries not to do.

The issues below show the map as it was drawn at each point in time, so you can check what was written down in advance against what happened.