These notes reconstruct a decision or investment thesis with the evidence that was reasonably available at the time — historical investor purchases, or contemporary desk research built from a dated packet. They are not biographies, quote collections, or trade copies. Facts, stated reasoning, and later hindsight are kept separate. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes. Nothing here is personalized advice.
The Paramaribo Letter did not publish before crypto’s 10 October 2025 liquidation. This case freezes that gap, reconstructs the event from dated market data and contemporaneous reporting, scores the 2026 letters that came after, and refuses to treat a $105k rhyme or a $30k analogue as a prediction.
Forecast scoring · October 10 2025 · Wildcard vs structure · Hindsight bias · Q4 2026 map
The Model Is No Longer the Moat contains two theses: a well-supported scarcity migration toward power, chips, data, and distribution — and a more speculative claim that agent orchestration and harnesses become a durable moat. This follow-up isolates the hinge: if models become commodities, does orchestration remain scarce, or does it become commodity software too?
Agent orchestration · Verification · Commodity software · Gödel caution · Falsification
Public excerpts attributed to a Dimension Capital August 2026 China memo argue that open-weight models are compressing the intelligence layer. This desk case turns that incomplete public evidence into an investment question: if models become interchangeable, where does economic value migrate — chips, power, data, distribution, or the systems that route, verify, and deploy agents?
AI commoditization · Open-weight models · Agent orchestration · Compute scarcity · Power infrastructure
Buffett and Munger bought See’s through Blue Chip Stamps at a hard $25 million ceiling. Reconstruct the thesis from filings and letters — pricing power, thin tangible capital, and a near-miss on price — without turning the later cash gusher into a 1972 prophecy.
Pricing power · Economic goodwill · Capital allocation · Inflation · Known risks
Educational and historical. Not investment advice. Named investors and firms are subjects of the research, not authors of this site.
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